World Manufacturing: Recovery Trends and Regional Variances Post-COVID-19
Global Manufacturing Recovery: Trends and Disparities
The most recent data, including the first months of 2021, confirm that global manufacturing production continues to recover, following a major drop during the first half of 2020 due to COVID-19. However, the pace of recovery is unequal. While manufacturing production in some countries, such as China, has reached and exceeded its pre-crisis production level, other countries still show only weak signs of recovery.
Insights from the World Manufacturing Report
The latest World Manufacturing Report, published by the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), includes the most recent official data on manufacturing production across the world and points to year-over-year growth of 12.0 percent in the first quarter of 2021. However, the report also shows the different paces of recovery in different regions.
Regional Recovery Dynamics
China quickly bounced back, with a year-on-year growth rate of 38.2 percent in the first quarter, in part due to last year’s low base of comparison. Other emerging and developing economies have already reached their pre-pandemic output levels in the previous quarter, and continue with moderate output growth of 3.2 percent for the current quarter. Industrialized economies, on the other hand, faced another wave of coronavirus infections in autumn 2020 and were forced to re-introduce stricter containment measures. Therefore, the recovery in these countries is still ongoing, with a first moderate increase of 1.5 percent in the first quarter of 2021.
Sectoral Recovery Trends
The different pace of recovery was not only observed at the country level. The UNIDO report reveals a similar trend among industrial sectors. Higher technology sectors recovered at a faster pace, with increases of at least 10.0 percent in the first quarter of 2021, while the output of low-technology industries registered a comparably lower year-over-year growth rate of 5.8 percent.
Forecasts and Projections
In addition to the observed figures for the first quarter of 2021, UNIDO's report also includes revised estimates for manufacturing growth in 2020 and projections for 2021. The forecasts for global manufacturing point to signs of recovery in 2021, further confirming the different speeds across different regions.
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Source: UNIDO report
